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NFP Reaction in EUR/USD and Similarity to Dec ’09

Sameer Kapoor 12 March 2012

Somehow I just remembered the NFP numbers from December 2009. At that time expectation was for loss 120K but number came out a loss only of 11K. Much better than expected and euro fell sharply that time and stocks rallied, same reaction as seen today. In fact, I have overlay chart from that time. You will notice that Stocks then moved sideways or even up for the next 30 days before they topped out, while Euro was falling sharply for the next 6monhts.

Will history repeat itself!? You can ignore it or you may not. But my charts today are telling me »Don’t Buy Euro«, and »We are Too High to Invest in Stocks«!

Euro –S&P relationship in Dec 2009 and later:

Euro –S&P relationship in Dec 2009 and later

March 2012

Euro –S&P relationship March 2012